Purpose: The objective of this study was to assess predictive value of various arterial markers for cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS).
Materials and methods: A longitudinal study with the follow-up period of 3.9 ± 1.7 years investigated 2728 middle-aged (53.9 ± 6.2 years old, 63% women) MetS subjects without overt CV disease. The study cohort was comprised of the participants of the Lithuanian High Cardiovascular Risk primary prevention program. The baseline assessment included the evaluation of brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid stiffness index, aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), aortic augmentation index (AIx), and cardio-ankle vascular index). The data on the cardiovascular outcome (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) was collected by using the databases of the two major national registries.
Results: Over the follow-up period, 83 (3%) patients had at least one cardiovascular event. In a univariate analysis, occurrence of CV events was associated with the following parameters: higher mean blood pressure, aPWV, AIx and cIMT, and lower FMD (all p < .05). In Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, the occurrence of CV event was associated with an increase in aPWV (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.60, p = .019), AIx (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.16-2.02, p = .003), and cIMT (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.14-1.50, p < .001), and with the decrease in FMD (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.97, p = .016) even after the adjustment for age, gender, and common cardiometabolic risk factors. In a two-level survival trees analysis, we established that patients with cIMT > 794 mcm had higher CV risk (p < .001) and their prognosis was further compromised by aPWV > 11.1 m/s (p = .023). Meanwhile, in patients with cIMT ≤ 794mcm, the FMD cut-off point of 6.5% further stratified the risk (p = .003).
Conclusions: In our prospective study, CV risk in the middle-aged patients with MetS was associated with an increase in cIMT and aPWV, and with a decrease in FMD.
Keywords: aortic stiffness; cardiovascular event; carotid intima-media thickness; endothelial function; metabolic syndrome.