Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.
Keywords: Maxent; Qinghai Plateau; climate change; conservation strategies; endangered species; species gain; species richness; species turnover.