In Finland, a recent ecological classification of surface waters showed that the rivers and coastal waters need attention to improve their ecological state. We combined eco-hydrological and empirical models to study chlorophyll-a concentration as an indicator of eutrophication in a small agricultural river. We used a modified story-and-simulation method to build three storylines for possible changes in future land use due to climate change and political change. The main objective in the first storyline is to stimulate economic activity but also to promote the sustainable and efficient use of resources. The second storyline is based on the high awareness but poor regulation of environmental protection, and the third is to survive as individual countries instead of being part of a unified Europe. We assumed trade of agricultural products to increase to countries outside Europe. We found that chlorophyll-a concentration in the river depended on total phosphorus concentration. In addition, there was a positive synergistic interaction between total phosphorus and water temperature. In future storylines, chlorophyll-a concentration increased due to land use and climate change. Climate change mainly had an indirect influence via increasing nutrient losses from intensified agriculture. We found that well-designed agri-environmental measures had the potential to decrease nutrient loading from fields, as long as the predicted increase in temperature remained under 2 °C. However, we were not able to achieve the nutrient reduction stated in current water protection targets. In addition, the ecological status of the river deteriorated. The influence of temperature on chlorophyll-a growth indicates that novel measures for shading rivers to decrease water temperature may be needed in the future.
Keywords: Climate change; Eco-hydrological modelling; Empirical modelling; Eutrophication; Land use change; Multiple stressors.
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