The Risk of Hypertension Doubles Every 10 Years in China: Age, Period, and Birth Cohort Effects on the Prevalence of Hypertension From 2004 to 2013

Abstract

Background: Hypertension is a growing problem worldwide and can often result in a variety of negative health outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the change in the prevalence rate of hypertension in Guangzhou from 2004 to 2013.

Methods: We used data from the Guangzhou Community Health Survey, a population-based study designed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the PRC every 5 years. A total of 27,299, 23,467, and 18,362 participants aged 15-79 years completed the survey in 2004, 2009, and 2013, respectively.

Results: Age effects increased slowly before the age of 42 years but increased rapidly after the age of 42 years, peaking at 79 years. Cohort effects grew slowly before the end of the 1960s but grew quickly after the end of the 1960s. The risk of suffering from hypertension among people born in 1962, 1972, 1982, and 1992 was 1.39, 2.68, 5.55, and 11.53 times, respectively, than that of people born in 1952. The period effects increased 25% from 2004 to 2009 and later declined 27% from 2009 to 2013 in the entire population. There was no gender difference in age effects and period effects, but strong cohort effects on hypertension were observed among males compared with females.

Conclusions: For Chinese individuals, the later one is born, the higher the risk is of suffering from hypertension. Strong cohort effects for hypertension were observed among males compared with females, indicating that males are more easily affected by hypertension based on the change in birth cohort.

Keywords: Prevalence; age-period-cohort; blood pressure; hypertension; sex differences; trend.