Background: No cohort studies have evaluated the effect of obesity on the incidence of thyroid cancer according to metabolic health status. Therefore, this study examined the association of body mass index (BMI) and metabolic health status with thyroid cancer risk.
Methods: A cohort study was performed involving 255,051 metabolically healthy (MH) and metabolically unhealthy (MUH) adults free of thyroid cancer at baseline who were followed for a median of 5.3 years. A parametric proportional hazard model was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and confidence interval (CI).
Results: During 1,402,426.3 person-years of follow-up, 2927 incident thyroid cancers were identified. Among men, the multivariable aHR for thyroid cancer comparing obesity, defined as a BMI ≥25 kg/m2, with a BMI of 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 was 1.47 [CI 1.12-1.93] in MH individuals, whereas the corresponding HR in MUH individuals was 1.26 [CI 1.03-1.53]. Among women, the corresponding HR in MH individuals was 1.05 [CI 0.80-1.36], whereas the corresponding HR in MUH individuals was 1.43 [CI 1.22-1.69]. Increasing quartiles of waist circumference were positively associated with risk of thyroid cancer in MUH men and women (p for trend <0.005) but not in MH individuals.
Conclusions: In both MH and MUH men, obesity was associated with an increased risk of incident thyroid cancer, indicating excessive adiposity per se as an independent risk factor for thyroid cancer. Conversely, women with MUH obesity but not MH obesity were found to have an increased risk of thyroid cancer, indicating that obesity with accompanying metabolic abnormalities may affect thyroid cancer risk in women.
Keywords: body mass index; metabolic health; obesity; risk factors; thyroid cancer.