Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan

William J Sutherland; Erica Fleishman; Mick Clout; David W Gibbons; Fiona Lickorish; Lloyd S Peck; Jules Pretty; Mark Spalding; Nancy Ockendon

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.003

Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan

Trends Ecol Evol. 2019 Feb;34(2):139-153. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.003. Epub 2019 Jan 2.

Authors

William J Sutherland¹, Erica Fleishman², Mick Clout³, David W Gibbons⁴, Fiona Lickorish⁵, Lloyd S Peck⁶, Jules Pretty⁷, Mark Spalding⁸, Nancy Ockendon⁹

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK. Electronic address: w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk.
² Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
³ Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
⁴ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK; RSPB, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
⁵ UK Research and Consultancy Services (RCS) Ltd, Valletts Cottage, Westhope, Hereford HR4 8BU, UK.
⁶ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
⁷ School of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK.
⁸ Global Marine Team, The Nature Conservancy, Department of Physical, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini, Siena 53100, Italy.
⁹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.

PMID: 30611398
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.003

Abstract

Our first horizon scan, conducted in 2009, aimed to identify novel but poorly known issues with potentially significant effects on global conservation of biological diversity. Following completion of the tenth annual scan, we reviewed the 15 topics identified a decade ago and assessed their development in the scientific literature and news media. Five topics, including microplastic pollution, synthetic meat, and environmental applications of mobile-sensing technology, appeared to have had widespread salience and effects. The effects of six topics were moderate, three have not emerged, and the effects of one topic were low. The awareness of, and involvement in, these issues by 12 conservation organisations has increased for most issues since 2009.

Keywords: biodiversity; environment; foresight; forward look; futures; prioritisation.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity*
Conservation of Natural Resources*