Predicting Short- and Long-Term Outcomes in Adult Heart Transplantation: Clinical Utility of MELD-XI Score

Abstract

Background: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scoring system excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) has been related with worse outcomes after heart transplantation (HT). However, according to standards in prognostic models research, before implementing a risk score for daily clinical decision-making, its performance and impact on clinical practice/outcomes should be evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of the MELD-XI score to predict outcomes in daily clinical practice.

Material and methods: We retrospectively reviewed 190 consecutive adults undergoing HT between 2005-2015. Patients were stratified into low (MELD-XI <12) and high (MELD-XI ≥12) risk cohorts. Mortality rates at 30 days and 1 year were compared between MELD-XI groups. MELD-XI ability to predict 1-year mortality was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and compared to that of bilirubin, creatinine, and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR).

Results: Mortality rates at 30 days and 1 year were similar between groups (8% vs 13%; P = .28 and 21% vs 29%; P = .21, respectively). MELD-XI ability to predict 1-year mortality was poor and similar to that of bilirubin, creatinine, and PVR (0.51 vs 0.47 vs 0.50 vs 0.50, respectively).

Conclusions: MELD-XI score utility in HT clinical decision-making is scarce since its discrimination ability is poor and similar to other simple prognostic variables.