Aim: To assess (1) how far smoking patterns, depression and smoking-related beliefs and intentions predict vaping uptake, current vaping and vaping frequency among daily smokers; and (2) how far the aforementioned predictors and baseline vaping frequency predict current vaping among those who reported ever vaped.
Design: Analysis of data from six waves of a longitudinal survey over 8 years. Longitudinal associations between predictors and outcomes were examined using multi-level models.
Setting: United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Australia.
Participants: A total of 6296 daily smokers (53% females) who contributed data to at least two consecutive survey waves.
Measurements: The outcome variables were vaping uptake, vaping frequency and current vaping at follow-up. The key predictor variables, measured in previous waves, were time to first cigarette, cigarettes smoked per day, depressive symptoms, intention to quit smoking, quitting self-efficacy and worry about adverse health effects of smoking.
Findings: Number of cigarettes smoked daily was associated with (1) subsequent vaping uptake [odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19, 2.39 for 30+ cigarette per day; reference category: 0-10 cigarettes] and (2) a higher frequency of current vaping (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.36, 2.85 for 30+ cigarettes). Intention to quit was associated with a higher frequency of current vaping (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.82). Among those who reported ever vaped, higher baseline vaping frequency (OR = 11.98, 95% CI = 6.00, 23.93 for daily vaping at baseline; reference category: vaped less than monthly) predicted current vaping.
Conclusion: Among daily smokers, amount smoked and intention to quit smoking appear to predict subsequent vaping uptake. Vaping frequency at baseline appears to predict current vaping at follow-up.
Keywords: E-cigarette; predictors; quitting smoking; tobacco; vaping; vapourized nicotine products.
© 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.