Background: The incidence rates of diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are increasing worldwide and their coexistence can have a large negative impact on clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear how incident DM affects CKD patients.
Methods: Incident CKD patients between 2000 and 2013 were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan; they were classified as non-DM (n = 10,356), pre-existing DM (n = 6982), and incident DM (n = 1103). Non-DM cases were patients who did not develop DM before the end of the observation period. The outcomes of interest were end-stage renal disease (ESRD), mortality, and composite outcome (ESRD or death). The association between the DM groups and clinical outcomes was estimated using the inverse probability of group-weighted (IPW) multivariate-adjusted time-dependent Cox regression models.
Results: During the study period of 14 years, 1735 (16.6%) patients in the non-DM group reached ESRD compared with 2168 (31.05%) in the pre-existing DM group and 111 (11.03%) in the incident DM group (p < 0.001). Moreover, 2219 (21.43%) patients in the non-DM group died compared with 1895 (27.14%) in the pre-existing DM group and 303 (27.47%) in the incident DM group (p < 0.001). Compared with the non-DM group, the pre-existing DM group was associated with a higher risk of ESRD [hazard ratio (HR) 2.54; 95% confidence interval (CI 2.43⁻2.65), death (HR 2.23; 95% CI 2.14⁻2.33), and a composite outcome (HR 2.29; 95% CI 2.21⁻2.36). Similarly, incident DM was also associated with a higher risk of ESRD (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.06⁻1.19), death (HR 2.48; 95% CI 2.37⁻2.60), and a composite outcome (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.70⁻1.84) compared with the non-DM group. Factors contributing to incident DM included old age, low monthly income, and having hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and ischemic heart disease, while pentoxifylline reduced the risk of incident DM.
Conclusion: Similarly to pre-existing DM, CKD patients with incident DM carried a higher risk of ESRD, mortality, and a composite outcome compared with those with non-DM. For those at risk of incident DM, strict monitoring and intervention strategies must be adopted to help improve their clinical outcomes.
Keywords: chronic kidney disease (CKD); end-stage renal disease (ESRD); incident diabetes; mortality; new-onset diabetes mellitus (DM).