Prediction of CH4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

Tingting Li; Hailing Li; Qing Zhang; Zhenfeng Ma; Lingfei Yu; Yanyu Lu; Zhenguo Niu; Wenjuan Sun; Jia Liu

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.275

Prediction of CH₄ emissions from potential natural wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Mar 20:657:498-508. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.275. Epub 2018 Nov 28.

Authors

Tingting Li¹, Hailing Li¹, Qing Zhang², Zhenfeng Ma³, Lingfei Yu⁴, Yanyu Lu⁵, Zhenguo Niu⁶, Wenjuan Sun⁴, Jia Liu³

Affiliations

¹ LAPC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
² LAPC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China. Electronic address: zhangqing@mail.iap.ac.cn.
³ Sichuan Climate Centre, Chengdu 610071, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China.
⁵ Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China.
⁶ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China.

PMID: 30550913
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.275

Abstract

The alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are ecosystems vulnerable to global climate change. It has been recognized that future climate change may have a significant impact on methane (CH₄) emissions from the plateau, while less attention has been paid to predicting temporal and spatial variations in CH₄ emissions from TP natural wetlands. In this study, we used an integrated model framework based on the CH4MOD_wetland, TOPMODEL and TEM models to predict CH₄ emissions from potential natural wetlands on the TP under IPCC AR5 scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The model estimates suggest that the mean area-weighted CH₄ fluxes will increase from 4.45 ± 0.42 g m^-2 yr^-1 in 2006 to 4.79 ± 0.72, 5.99 ± 0.85 and 11.53 ± 1.33 g m^-2 yr^-1 under 3 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios), respectively, by 2100. The dominant drivers stimulating CH₄ emissions are air temperature, precipitation and net primary productivity (NPP). Spatially, CH₄ fluxes and emissions showed a decreasing trend from south to north and from east to west. In response to climate change, a total of 0.42 ± 0.06, 0.54 ± 0.09 and 1.01 ± 0.12 Tg yr^-1 of CH₄ emissions will be emitted from the TP's potential natural wetlands by the end of this century under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Keywords: CH(4) emissions; Climate change; Model; Tibetan plateau; Wetland.