An important challenge facing the New Zealand (NZ) dairy industry is development of production systems that can maintain or increase production and profitability, while reducing impacts on receiving environments including water and air. Using research 'farmlets' in Waikato, Canterbury, and Otago (32⁻200 animals per herd), we assessed if system changes aimed at reducing nitrate leaching can also reduce total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (methane and nitrous oxide) and emissions intensity (kg GHG per unit of product) by comparing current and potential 'improved' dairy systems. Annual average GHG emissions for each system were estimated for three or four years using calculations based on the New Zealand Agricultural Inventory Methodology, but included key farmlet-specific emission factors determined from regional experiments. Total annual GHG footprints ranged between 10,800 kg and 20,600 kg CO₂e/ha, with emissions strongly related to the amount of feed eaten. Methane (CH₄) represented 75% to 84% of the total GHG footprint across all modelled systems, with enteric CH₄ from lactating cows grazing pasture being the major source. Excreta deposition onto paddocks was the largest source of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, representing 7⁻12% of the total GHG footprint for all systems. When total emissions were represented on an intensity basis, 'improved' systems are predicted to generally result in lower emissions intensity. The 'improved' systems had lower GHG footprints than the 'current' system, except for one of the 'improved' systems in Canterbury, which had a higher stocking rate. The lower feed supplies and associated lower stocking rates of the 'improved' systems were the key drivers of lower total GHG emissions in all three regions. 'Improved' systems designed to reduced N leaching generally also reduced GHG emissions.
Keywords: environmental modelling; methane emissions; nitrate leaching; nitrous oxide; pasture systems.