Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets

Emily Nicholson; Elizabeth A Fulton; Thomas M Brooks; Ryan Blanchard; Paul Leadley; Jean Paul Metzger; Karel Mokany; Simone Stevenson; Brendan A Wintle; Skipton N C Woolley; Megan Barnes; James E M Watson; Simon Ferrier

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006

Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets

Trends Ecol Evol. 2019 Jan;34(1):57-68. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006. Epub 2018 Dec 1.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Geelong, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: e.nicholson@deakin.edu.au.
² CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
³ IUCN, Gland, Switzerland; World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines; Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
⁴ CSIR, Natural Resources and the Environment, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
⁵ Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France.
⁶ Department of Ecology, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
⁷ CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
⁸ Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Integrative Ecology, Geelong, VIC, Australia.
⁹ School of BioSciences, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
¹⁰ CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
¹¹ Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Manoa, HI, USA.
¹² School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY, USA.

PMID: 30514580
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.006

Abstract

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them. The capacity of scenarios and models to address complexity makes them invaluable for developing meaningful targets and policy, and improving conservation outcomes.

Keywords: biodiversity; conservation policy; conservation targets; environmental change; indicators; modelling; scenarios.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity*
Conservation of Natural Resources / methods*
Conservation of Natural Resources / statistics & numerical data
Models, Theoretical