Probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells in Persian Gulf

Abstract

Oil spills in the marine environment can have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts may be of transnational nature, and this makes the oil spill problem an international issue. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a common structured methodology for oil spill risk assessment. In this research, a general framework is presented for probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells. A case study is also performed in Persian Gulf to quantify the risk posed by 357 offshore wells to the near-shore receptors. First, thousands of hypothetical spill scenarios of different volumes are defined and simulated using a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Then, the result of the simulations is statistically processed to generate the risk networks and risk maps. The result of this research shed light on the importance of the pattern of environmental forcing elements and the frequency of spills in oil spill risk assessment.

Keywords: Oil spill; Probabilistic risk assessment; Risk distribution; Risk map; Risk-based ranking.