A risk score for carotid plaque as an assessment risk of cardiovascular risk among patients with hypertension

Abstract

This study aimed to describe the status of carotid plaques and develop a simple scoring system to predict the risk of carotid lesions in patients with hypertension. Basic testing for carotid plaques was carried out and used for risk score development (the training dataset, n = 2665) and validation (the test dataset, n = 1333). Independent predictors of carotid plaques from the multivariate model were assigned integer weights based on their coefficients and incorporated into a risk score. The discriminant ability of the score was tested by receiver operating characteristic analysis using the test dataset. A total of 1346 of 2665 patients were examined for carotid plaques, which were more frequent in men than in women, and increased with age. The final model included eight significant variables, and these variables were then used to develop a risk score for the prediction of carotid plaques. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated good discriminant power with a C-statistic of 0.732 (95% confidence interval: 0.713-0.751) and good calibration across quantiles of observed predicted risk (74.6%). We developed a simple risk score for the prediction of carotid plaques based on eight variables. The prediction model showed good discriminant power and calibration.

Keywords: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; carotid plaque; risk score.