Background: Hypertension is a global health threat and major cardiovascular risk. Various risk-prediction models for incident hypertension have been developed but not many of them have studied the risk-predictive value of life style factors in combination with cardiovascular biomarkers during long-term period of over 10 years.
Methods: We examined differences in several classical variables for 299 subjects in OPERA (Oulu Project Elucidating Risk of Atherosclerosis) cohort in subjects with no or new hypertension during a follow-up period of 21 years. Effect of both various life style habits and biomarkers were investigated.
Results: Baseline blood pressure, being overweight and smoking actively were independent predictors of new hypertension in majority of multivariate models during long-term follow-up of 21 years in subjects without previous hypertension. Increased high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level (> 3 mg/L) was the strongest predictor of incident hypertension in univariate model. Subjects with two or all three of main risk factors (being overweight, smoking actively and having high hsCRP) had 4-fold risk for incident hypertension.
Conclusions: Smoking, overweight and increased hsCRP level had risk-predictive value in incident hypertension prediction during long-term follow-up of 21 years. Assessment and measurement of these parameters could be used in help of detecting high risk subjects and primary prevention of hypertension very early on. In addition, the study shows that blood pressure at the middle-age should be followed and treated intensively to prevent hypertension in the older age.
Key messages: Baseline blood pressure, being overweight and smoking actively are independent predictors of new hypertension during a long-term follow-up of 21 years. Having two or all three risk factors (smoking actively, body mass index over 25 kg/m2, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level over 3 mg/L) indicates a 4-fold risk for incident hypertension within 21-year follow-up.
Keywords: Biomarkers; C-reactive protein; blood pressure; body mass index; forecasting; hypertension; life style; overweight; risk assessment; smoking.