Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock

PLoS One. 2018 Oct 24;13(10):e0206319. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206319. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Climate*
  • Fisheries / trends*
  • Forecasting
  • Gadus morhua / physiology*
  • Linear Models
  • Oceans and Seas
  • Population Density
  • Seasons

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Centre for Climate Dynamics at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research through the project PARADIGM, the Research Council of Norway projects EPOCASA (grant 229774) and PATHWAY (grant 263223), and the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant 727852). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.