Objective: To assess the risk of imported leishmaniasis in China, offering scientific evidences for leishmaniasis prevention and control.
Methods: The expert consultation method was used to establish a risk index system, and the risk matrix was used to evaluate the risk scales of leishmaniasis.
Results: This risk assessment indicator system included 3 first-grade indexes and 13 second-grade indexes to the aspect of risk probability. Five indexes were also included on the aspect of the risk hazard severity in this system. The transmission risk matrix assessment showed that the risk of imported leishmaniasis transmission in China was in low risk level.
Conclusions: This risk matrix assessment is applied for the transmission of imported leishmaniasis in China in the first time, indicating the potential risk of imported leishmaniasis in China.
[摘要] 目的 构建输入性利什曼病传播风险评估体系, 为评估我国输入性利什曼病的传播风险提供科学依据。方 法 运用专家咨询法, 构建输入性利什曼病传播风险评价指标体系, 应用风险矩阵评估方法评价我国输入性利什曼病的 传播风险等级。结果 通过专家咨询法建立了我国输入性利什曼病传播风险评价指标体系, 其中风险发生可能性评价 体系包括3个一级指标、13个二级指标, 风险危害程度评价体系包括5个指标。经风险矩阵分析评估, 目前我国输入性 利什曼病传播风险等级为低风险。结论 本研究首次使用矩阵分析方法进行输入性利什曼病的传播风险分析, 提示我 国存在输入性利什曼病传播的潜在风险。.
Keywords: Imported leishmaniasis; Risk assessment; Risk matrix; Transmission risk.