Background: Although new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) increases with ageing, the prediction of new-onset AF is complicated. We previously reported that pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (ePCWP) estimated by the combination of left atrial volume index (LAVI) and active left atrial emptying function (aLAEF) had a strong relationship with PCWP on catheterization (r=0.92): ePCWP=10.8-12.4×log (aLAEF/minimum LAVI). We sought to determine the usefulness of ePCWP to predict new-onset AF. Methods and Results: We measured LAVI, aLAEF and ePCWP on speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) in 566 consecutive elderly patients (72±6 years) without a history of AF. A total of 63 patients (73±6 years) developed electrocardiographically confirmed AF during a mean follow-up period of 50 months. Baseline aLAEF was significantly lower in patients with than without new-onset AF (17.9±6.5 vs. 28.2±7.5%), whereas ePCWP was significantly higher (14.8±3.7 vs. 10.3±3.1 mmHg). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, ePCWP and aLAEF were strong independent predictors of AF. Using ePCWP >13 mmHg or aLAEF ≤22% on univariate Cox regression analysis, the HR for new-onset AF were 3.53 (95% CI: 1.68-7.44, P<0.001) and 4.06 (95% CI: 1.90-8.65, P<0.001), respectively. By combining these 2 criteria (>13 mmHg and ≤22%), the HR increased to 11.84 (95% CI: 6.85-20.5, P<0.001).
Conclusions: ePCWP and aLAEF measured on STE are useful predictors of new-onset AF. ePCWP provides added value for risk stratification of new-onset AF.
Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Left atrial function; Pulmonary capillary wedge pressure; Speckle tracking echocardiography.