Objectives: We wished to determine whether tumor morphology descriptors obtained from pretreatment magnetic resonance images and clinical variables could predict survival for glioblastoma patients.
Methods: A cohort of 404 glioblastoma patients (311 discoveries and 93 validations) was used in the study. Pretreatment volumetric postcontrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance images were segmented to obtain the relevant morphological measures. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, correlations, and Harrell's concordance indexes (c-indexes) were used for the statistical analysis.
Results: A linear prognostic model based on the outstanding variables (age, contrast-enhanced (CE) rim width, and surface regularity) identified a group of patients with significantly better survival (p < 0.001, HR = 2.57) with high accuracy (discovery c-index = 0.74; validation c-index = 0.77). A similar model applied to totally resected patients was also able to predict survival (p < 0.001, HR = 3.43) with high predictive value (discovery c-index = 0.81; validation c-index = 0.92). Biopsied patients with better survival were well identified (p < 0.001, HR = 7.25) by a model including age and CE volume (c-index = 0.87).
Conclusions: Simple linear models based on small sets of meaningful MRI-based pretreatment morphological features and age predicted survival of glioblastoma patients to a high degree of accuracy. The partition of the population using the extent of resection improved the prognostic value of those measures.
Key points: • A combination of two MRI-based morphological features (CE rim width and surface regularity) and patients' age outperformed previous prognosis scores for glioblastoma. • Prognosis models for homogeneous surgical procedure groups led to even more accurate survival prediction based on Kaplan-Meier analysis and concordance indexes.
Keywords: Biomarkers; Glioblastoma; Multivariate analysis; Prognosis; Survival analysis.