Background: The effectiveness of gemcitabine plus capecitabine compared with gemcitabine monotherapy for resected pancreatic cancer has been evaluated in the ESPAC-4 trial. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of these adjuvant regimens on resected pancreatic cancer.
Methods: A Markov model was established to simulate the disease process of resected pancreatic cancer (relapse-free survival, progressive disease, and death). The efficacy and toxicity profiles were collected from the ESPAC-4 trial. Transition probabilities were calculated based on survival in each group. Cost data were calculated from the perspective of the Chinese health-care payer. The primary endpoint in the analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and model uncertainties were explored by one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
Results: Our results demonstrated that gemcitabine monotherapy cost $36,028.45 and yielded a survival of 1.02 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), while gemcitabine plus capecitabine cost $46,095.05 and yielded a survival of 1.23 QALY. Therefore, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of gemcitabine plus capecitabine vs gemcitabine monotherapy was $45,191.23 which surpassed the willingness-to-pay threshold of $29,291.42 per QALY in China.
Conclusion: The gemcitabine monotherapy regimen is more cost-effective compared with gemcitabine plus capecitabine regimen for the patients with postoperative pancreatic cancer from the Chinese societal perspective.
Keywords: Markov model; capecitabine; cost-effectiveness; gemcitabine; resected pancreatic cancer.