A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño

Abstract

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO₂ rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 ± 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO₂, with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO₂ rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO₂ above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO₂ at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Keywords: El Niño; Mauna Loa; carbon dioxide rise; emissions; seasonal forecast; terrestrial biosphere.