Urbanization exerts anthropogenic forcing that affects regional climate and ecosystems. With increasing levels of urbanization associated with urban population growth in the near future, understanding of the impact of urbanization on terrestrial ecosystems is important for predicting future environmental changes. This study evaluates the impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology by addressing the relationship between population density and phenology at nine stations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), South Korea during 1991-2010. We analyze the spring budburst dates for the six species (Prunus mume, Forsythia koreana, Rhododendron mucronulatum, Prunus yedoensis, Prunus persica, and Prunus pyrifolia) and the leaf coloring date for the two species (Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum). Regardless of species, the density of the urban population shows significant negative (positive) relationships with spring (autumn) phenology. In the SCA, urban population increases are related to earlier spring budburst up to 13 days and delayed leaf coloring up to 15 days. The most apparent spring budburst sensitivity is observed in Prunus mume, whereas the most dominant autumn leaf coloring sensitivity is observed in Acer palmatum. The relationship between population density and phenology is supported by the difference in nocturnal temperatures between stations which varies with the population density. Our results suggest that, in addition to global warming, future population growth should be considered in ecosystem assessments of human-induced environmental changes.
Keywords: Autumn leaf coloring; Phenology; Population growth; Seoul Capital Area; Spring budburst; Urbanization.