Establishment of Predictive Models for Nonocclusive Mesenteric Ischemia Comparing 8,296 Control with 452 Study Patients

J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. 2019 May;33(5):1290-1297. doi: 10.1053/j.jvca.2018.08.194. Epub 2018 Aug 24.

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop clinical preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative scores for early identification of patients who are at risk of nonocclusive mesenteric ischemia (NOMI).

Design: A retrospective analysis.

Setting: Single center.

Participants: From January 2008 to December 2014, all patients from the Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery were included on the basis of the hospital database.

Interventions: All mesenteric angiographically identified NOMI patients were compared with non-NOMI patients.

Measurements and main results: The study population of 8,748 patients was randomized into a cohort for developing the scores (non-NOMI 4,214 and NOMI 235) and a cohort for control (non-NOMI 4,082 and NOMI 217). Risk factors were identified using forward and backward Wald test and were included in the predictive scores for the occurrence of NOMI. C statistic showed that the scores had a high discrimination for the prediction of NOMI preoperatively (C statistic 0.79; p < 0.001), intraoperatively (C statistic 0.68; p < 0.001), and postoperatively (C statistic 0.85; p < 0.001). A combination of the preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative risk scores demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic 0.87; p < 0.001). The combined score included the following risk factors: renal insufficiency (preoperative); use of cardiopulmonary bypass and intra-aortic balloon pump support (intraoperative); and reexploration for bleeding, renal replacement therapy, and packed red blood cells ≥ 4 units (postoperative). The results were similar in the control group.

Conclusions: These scores could be useful to identify patients at risk for NOMI and promote a rapid diagnosis and therapy.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary bypass; intestinal ischemia; multiple organ failure; score; sepsis; systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Randomized Controlled Trial

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cardiac Output / physiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mesenteric Ischemia / diagnostic imaging*
  • Mesenteric Ischemia / physiopathology
  • Mesenteric Ischemia / surgery*
  • Models, Cardiovascular*
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment / methods