Estimating urban residential building-related energy consumption and energy intensity in China based on improved building stock turnover model

Tengfei Huo; Hong Ren; Weiguang Cai

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.008

Estimating urban residential building-related energy consumption and energy intensity in China based on improved building stock turnover model

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 10;650(Pt 1):427-437. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.008. Epub 2018 Sep 4.

Authors

Tengfei Huo¹, Hong Ren¹, Weiguang Cai²

Affiliations

¹ School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, PR China; Research center of Construction Economy and management, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, PR China.
² School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, PR China; Research center of Construction Economy and management, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, PR China. Electronic address: wgcai@cqu.edu.cn.

PMID: 30199687
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.008

Abstract

Accurate estimation of urban residential building-related energy consumption (URBEC) and energy intensity per unit floor area at the national level has significant implications for the analysis of carbon emission peaks. However, reliable data on China's building floor space (BFS) are lacking, resulting in unclear energy intensity levels. This study proposes a China BFS estimation method (CBFSEM) based on improved building stock turnover model. Using CBFSEM, it estimates the BFS of historic urban dwelling stock, the demolished and newly built dwelling from 2000 to 2015. It then estimates the corresponding energy consumption and intensity based on the obtained urban residential BFS data. Results showed that total URBEC in China increased dramatically from 217.1 Mtce in 2000 to 417.2 Mtce in 2015 with an average annual growth rate of 4.45%. China's total dwelling stock almost doubled, from 10.6 billion m² in 2000 to 27.4 billion m² in 2015 with an annual growth rate of 6.56%. The operational energy consumption accounted for approximately 70% of total URBEC and the building material production energy intensity was the highest in total URBEC, >60 kgce/m². A comparison with the China Population Census showed that the deviations were well below 8%, which indicated the reliability of the CBFSEM and the estimated results. In general, this study fills the gap in available data and addresses the shortage of estimation methods for BFS and energy intensity. It also provides the government with technical support and scientific evidence to promote building energy efficiency.

Keywords: Building energy consumption; Building energy intensity; Building stock turnover model; China; Urban residential building-related energy consumption.