Is the occurrence of pediatric epistaxis related to climatic variables?

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the correlations between multiple meteorological variables and the frequency of epistaxis in the pediatric population.

Methods: Children diagnosed with epistaxis in 2016 and 2017 were selected from the Outpatient Department of the Children's Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine. The correlations between multiple meteorological factors and the incidence of pediatric epistaxis each month, were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was generated to predict the cases of pediatric epistaxis using both the 2-year study data and the 4-month new data.

Results: There were 6805 cases of pediatric epistaxis (mean age 4.99 years). Contrary to previously reported inverse associations between ambient temperature and presentation rates for patients with epistaxis, a significant strong positive correlation was found between temperature and pediatric epistaxis rates (Pearson's r = 0.801 p < 0.001). A weak negative correlation between humidity and pediatric epistaxis was found, but it was not significant (Pearson's r = -0.225 p = 0.29). A very strong positive correlation between high air visibility and pediatric epistaxis was identified (Pearson's r = 0.909 p < 0.001). The predictions from the Poisson regression model have a mean error rate of 5.70% ± 22.71%.

Conclusion: A positive correlation between the frequency of pediatric epistaxis existed for both temperature and air visibility. No significant correlation was found for humidity.

Keywords: Epistaxis; Meteorological factors; Pearson correlation; Poisson regression.