Inflation targeting or exchange rate targeting: Which framework supports the goal of price stability in emerging market economies?

PLoS One. 2018 Aug 28;13(8):e0201798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201798. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

The paper investigates and compares the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under inflation targeting and, alternatively, a conventional fixed exchange rate system, for a group of emerging countries. To do so we estimate GARCH in mean models and we find that there is a bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty under the two monetary regimes. It is also found that the fixed exchange rate regime has no impact on average inflation and inflation inertia, while inflation targeting has been successful at lowering both average inflation and inflation persistence.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Brazil
  • Developing Countries
  • Egypt
  • Inflation, Economic*
  • Jordan
  • Models, Economic*
  • Poland
  • South Africa
  • Uncertainty*

Grants and funding

JCC acknowledges the financial support from the following: the ECO2017-83255-C3-3-P and ECO2017-85503-R projects from ‘Agencia Estatal de Investigación’ (AEI) and ‘Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional’ (FEDER).