Development of a Comorbidity Index to Identify Patients With Small Bowel Bleeding at Risk for Rebleeding and Small Bowel Vascular Diseases

Abstract

Background & aims: We aimed to establish a comorbidity index for small bowel vascular diseases (SBVD) associated with small bowel bleeding (SBB) and recurrent bleeding.

Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 404 patients diagnosed with SBB via double-balloon enteroscopy, at 2 hospitals in Japan from June 2003 through July 2016. We collected data on comorbidities, computed Charlson Comorbidity Index and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) scores, and analyzed associations with SBVD, rebleeding, and overall survival associated with bleeding and/or comorbidities. We used these data to develop a comorbidity index to identify patients at risk for SBVD, rebleeding, and reduced survival time. We validated our findings in a separate, prospective cohort of 88 patients with SBB.

Results: We developed a weighted index (the Ohmiya index) that identified patients who developed SBVD with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.7758; this value was higher than that of the Charlson index score (0.6828; P < .0001) or ATRIA score (0.6728; P < .0001) alone. Among the 51 patients taking oral anticoagulants, there was no significant difference in AUROCs for the Ohmiya score (0.5254) vs the outcomes registry for better informed treatment score (0.5857; P = .4300). In the retrospective cohort, the Ohmiya index identified patients with SBVD with 68% sensitivity (93/137), 84% specificity (223/267), and 78% accuracy (316/404); in the validation cohort, these values were 63% (22/35), 85% (45/53), and 76% (67/88), respectively. Onset age <50 years and index score <2 identified patients with Meckel's diverticulum and Crohn's disease with 53% accuracy. Onset age ≥50 years and index score <2 identified patients with inflammatory diseases, drug-induced injuries, or tumors with 72% accuracy. An index score ≥2 identified patients with SBVD with 68% accuracy, regardless of age. Among patients with Ohmiya index scores ≥2, 33% had rebleeding; among patients with scores <2, 15% had rebleeding (hazard ratio for score ≥2, 1.729; 95% CI, 1.038-2.882; P = .0355).

Conclusion: We developed an index, based on comorbidities and age of onset of SBB, that identified patients at risk for rebleeding and vascular disease (for example, enteroscopic hemostasis for SBVD, medication for inflammatory diseases, surgery with enteroscopic tattooing for tumors and diverticula). UMIN: 000025693.

Keywords: Complication; IBD; ORBIT Score; Prognostic Factor.