A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau

Linlin Li; Adam D Switzer; Yu Wang; Chung-Han Chan; Qiang Qiu; Robert Weiss

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat1180

A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau

Sci Adv. 2018 Aug 15;4(8):eaat1180. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat1180. eCollection 2018 Aug.

Authors

Linlin Li¹, Adam D Switzer^{1

2}, Yu Wang^{1

3}, Chung-Han Chan¹, Qiang Qiu², Robert Weiss⁴

Affiliations

¹ Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore.
² Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore.
³ Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan.
⁴ Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.

Abstract

Rising sea levels will have overwhelmingly negative impacts on coastal communities globally. With previous research focused on how sea-level rise (SLR) affects storm-induced flooding, we show that SLR will also increase both the frequency and the intensity of tsunami-induced flooding, another significant coastal hazard associated with sea-level extremes. We developed probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for Macau, a densely populated coastal city located in the South China Sea, under current sea-level, 0.5-m SLR, and 1-m SLR conditions, using an extensive Monte Carlo tsunami inundation simulation. Our results indicate that conservative amounts of SLR of 0.5 m (by 2060) and 1 m (by 2100) would dramatically increase the frequency of tsunami-induced flooding incidences by a factor of 1.2 to 2.4 and 1.5 to 4.7, respectively.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.