This paper proposes a simple model for predicting the development of deleterious expansion from alkali-silica reaction (ASR) in long-service concrete structures. This model is based on some composition and reactivity parameters related to ASR, including the long-term alkali contribution by aggregates to concrete structures. This alkali contribution was estimated by means of a laboratory extraction test, appositely developed in this study in order to maximize the alkali extraction within relatively short testing times and with low leaching solution/aggregate ratios. The proposed test is a modification of the Italian Standard test method UNI 11417-2 (Ente Nazionale Italiano di Normazione) and it consists of subjecting an aggregate sample to leaching with saturated calcium hydroxide solution in a laboratory autoclave at 105 °C. Nine natural ASR-susceptible aggregates (seven sands and two coarse aggregates) were tested and the following optimized test conditions were found: leaching solution/aggregate weight ratio = 0.6; solid calcium hydroxide/aggregate weight ratio = 0.05; test duration = 120 h. The results of the optimized alkali extraction tests were used in the proposed model for predicting the potential development of long-term ASR expansion in concrete dams. ASR predictions congruent with both the field experience and the ASR prevention criteria recommended by European Committee for Standardization Technical Report CEN/TR 16349:2012 were found, thus indicating the suitability of the proposed model.
Keywords: ASR prediction model; alkali extraction test; alkali-silica reaction; concrete aggregates; long-term alkali release.