Risk-adjusted monitoring of surgical performance

PLoS One. 2018 Aug 8;13(8):e0200915. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200915. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

We propose a nonparametric risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart to monitor surgical outcomes for patients with different risks of post-operative mortality due to risk factors that exist before the surgery. Using varying-coefficient logistic regression models, we accomplish the risk adjustment. Unknown coefficient functions are estimated by global polynomial spline approximation based on the maximum likelihood principle. We suggest a bisection minimization approach and a bootstrap method to determine the chart testing limit value. Compared with the previous (parametric) risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart, a major advantage of our method is that the morality rate can be modeled more flexibly by related covariates, which significantly enhances the monitoring efficiency. Simulations demonstrate nice performance of our proposed procedure. An application to a UK cardiac surgery dataset illustrates the use of our methodology.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Cardiac Surgical Procedures / methods
  • General Surgery / methods
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Models, Statistical
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods*
  • Risk Adjustment / methods*
  • Risk Adjustment / statistics & numerical data*
  • Risk Factors
  • Statistics, Nonparametric
  • Treatment Outcome

Grants and funding

Jianbo Li is supported by NSFC (Grant 11571148), Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and Qinglan Project in Jiangsu. Xuejun Jiang is supported by Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong province of China (2017A030313012) and Shenzhen Sci-Tech Fund (JCYJ20170307110329106).