Short period PM2.5 prediction based on multivariate linear regression model

PLoS One. 2018 Jul 26;13(7):e0201011. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201011. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

A multivariate linear regression model was proposed to achieve short period prediction of PM2.5 (fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less). The main parameters for the proposed model included data on aerosol optical depth (AOD) obtained through remote sensing, meteorological factors from ground monitoring (wind velocity, temperature, and relative humidity), and other gaseous pollutants (SO2, NO2, CO, and O3). Beijing City was selected as a typical region for the case study. Data on the aforementioned variables for the city throughout 2015 were used to construct two regression models, which were discriminated by annual and seasonal data, respectively. The results indicated that the regression model based on annual data had (R2 = 0.766) goodness-of-fit and (R2 = 0.875) cross-validity. However, the regression models based on seasonal data for spring and winter were more effective, achieving 0.852 and 0.874 goodness-of-fit, respectively. Model uncertainties were also given, with the view of laying the foundation for further study.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Linear Models
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Particle Size*
  • Particulate Matter / analysis*
  • Particulate Matter / chemistry*
  • Time Factors

Substances

  • Particulate Matter

Grants and funding

This study is sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41571520; No. 41471116), Sichuan Provincial Key Technology Support (No. 2014GZ0168), The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. A0920502051408), BMBF Kopernikus Project for the Energy Transition-Thematic Field No. 4 “System Integration and Networks for the Energy Supply” (ENavi), and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (Xue Bing, 2016181). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.