Background: Available prospective studies of food insecurity and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have included obesity and hypertension as the modifiable risk factors. Studies using the physical activity measures are lacking, and where to contribute to counterbalance the risk associated with food insecurity and CVD remains unclear. We aimed to use structural equation modelling (SEM) to explore the complex direct and indirect factor variables influencing cardiovascular disease (CVD) during a seven-year follow-up study. Methods: For 3955 adults who participated in the Indonesian Family Life Surveys in 2007 and 2014, we used SEM to examine the direct and indirect relationships of food consumption score, body shape index, physical activity volume, and blood pressures on CVD. Results: Based on the beta coefficients from a regression analysis, the significant direct effects (p < 0.001) for CVD were food consumption score (FCS), a body shape index (ABSI), vigorous physical activity volume (VPAV), and systolic blood pressure (SBP). Indirect (p = 0.004⁻p < 0.001) effects for CVD were FCS, ABSI, moderate physical activity volume (MPAV), and VPAV. Food-insecure people are more likely to consume high-calorie diets that lead to obesity, which, together with a lack of vigorous physical activity, leads to hypertension and CVD. Conclusions: Of the multiple factors influencing CVD, the modifiable risk factors were FCS, ABSI, and VPAV. Hence, the recommendations for CVD prevention should include targeting food insecurity, body shape index, and vigorous physical activity besides the measurement of blood pressure.
Keywords: blood pressures; body shape index; cardiovascular disease; food consumption score; generalised estimating equations; physical activity; structural equation modelling.