Background: Nearly 40%-50% of the individuals fail to respond to first line antiepileptic drug (AED) monotherapy and 30% are refractory, which calls for the need to recognize predictive markers for treatment failure. This study aims to identify clinical factors predictive of a poor prognosis in patients on AED therapy.
Materials and methods: A prospective follow-up study involving 1056 patients with epilepsy (PWE) aged 5-67 years from North India on phenytoin (PHT, n = 247), carbamazepine (CBZ, n = 369), valproate (VA, n = 271), phenobarbital (PB, n = 50), and multitherapy (MultiT, n = 119) was conducted between 2005 and 2015. Seizure and epilepsy types were diagnosed based on the classifications by the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). Patients remaining seizure-free during the past 1 year were assigned to the "no seizure" group and patients experiencing seizure recurrence were assigned to the "recurrent seizures" group.
Results: Of the total, 786 (74.4%) patients were successfully followed up with 60% achieving 1-year seizure remission. Seizure recurrence was observed in the remaining 40% of the patients with a high likelihood in patients with the disease onset at ≤5 years of age [55% vs. 38%, P = 0.0016, odds ratio (OR) = 2.02 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31-3.13)], in patients with cryptogenic epilepsy than with idiopathic/symptomatic epilepsy (48% vs. 32%, P = 0.0049, OR = 1.61 [95% CI = 1.16-2.24]), and in patients with pretreatment seizure frequency ≥12/year (46% vs. 27%, P < 0.0001, OR = 2.21 [95% CI = 1.61-3.05]). Logistic regression analysis also revealed a significant association of seizure recurrence (P < 0.05) with the three variables.
Conclusion: Our findings suggest that an early disease onset, cryptogenic epilepsy, and a higher pretreatment seizure frequency are related to a poor prognosis or poor remission in people with epilepsy (PWE) on AED therapy.
Keywords: Age at onset; cryptogenic epilepsy; epilepsy; pretreatment seizure frequency; prognostic factors.