Prognostic and predictive signatures for treatment decisions

Biomark Med. 2018 Aug;12(8):849-859. doi: 10.2217/bmm-2017-0320. Epub 2018 Jul 19.

Abstract

Aim: We develop a subgroup selection procedure using both prognostic and predictive biomarkers to identify four patient subpopulations: low- and high-risk responders, and low- and high-risk nonresponders.

Methods: We utilize three regression models to identify three sets of biomarkers: S, prognostic biomarkers; T, predictive biomarkers; and U, prognostic and predictive biomarkers. The prognostic signature C(S) combines with a predictive signature, either C(T) or C(U), to develop two procedures C(S,T) and C(S,U) for identification of four subgroups.

Results: Simulation experiment showed that proposed models for identifying the biomarker sets S and U performed well, as did the procedure C(S,U) for subgroup identification.

Conclusion: The proposed model provides more comprehensive characterization of patient subpopulations, and better accuracy in patient treatment assignment.

Keywords: biomarker identification; clinical trial; interaction test; predictive classifiers; subgroup selection; tailored therapy.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Biomarkers / metabolism
  • Clinical Decision-Making*
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*

Substances

  • Biomarkers