Preoperative risk analysis index for frailty predicts short-term outcomes after hepatopancreatobiliary surgery

Abstract

Background: The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) for frailty is a rapid survey for comorbidities and performance status, which predicts mortality after general surgery. We aimed to validate the RAI in predicting outcomes after hepatopancreatobiliary surgery.

Methods: Associations of RAI, determined in 162 patients prior to undergoing hepatopancreatobiliary surgery, with prospectively collected 30-day post-operative outcomes were analyzed with multivariate logistic and linear regression.

Results: Patients (age 62 ± 14, 51% female) had a median RAI of 7, range 0-25. With every unit increase in RAI, length of stay increased by 5% (95% CI: 2-7%), odds of ICU admission increased by 10% (0-20%), ICU length of stay increased by 21% (9-34%), and odds of discharge to a nursing facility increased by 8% (0-17%) (all P < 0.05). Particularly in patients who suffered a first post-operative complication, RAI was associated with additional complications (1.6 unit increase in Comprehensive Complication Index per unit increase in RAI, P = 0.002). In a direct comparison in a subset of 74 patients, RAI and the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator performed comparably in predicting outcomes.

Conclusion: While RAI and ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator comparatively predicted short-term outcomes after HPB surgery, RAI has been specifically designed to identify frail patients who can potentially benefit from preoperative prehabilitation interventions.