Background: Despite good intentions, humanitarian surgical missions are unavoidably linked to some degree of complication. We hypothesized that the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC) could estimate the risk of complications of procedures performed during the US Navy's Pacific Partnership 2015 (PP15) mission.
Methods: Patient information and surgical details recorded during PP15 were entered into the ACS-SRC. Risks of complications for each procedure were calculated. Receiver operating characteristics and Brier scores were calculated to compare the predicted outcomes to the observed complications.
Results: Of the 174 unique procedures performed during PP15 (representing 465 patients), 99 were found in the ACS-SRC (representing 256 patients). Risk calculations for PP15 were: 1.5% risk (IQR 0.9, 2.4) of "serious" complications and 2.0% risk (IQR 1.3, 2.8) of "any" complication. ACS-SRC specific risks were calculated as follows: pneumonia 0.1%, cardiac 0.0%, surgical site infection (SSI) 0.6%, urinary tract infection 0.2%, venous thromboembolism 0.1%, renal failure 0.0%, OR return 0.9%, and death 0.0%. The only specific ACS-SRC complication observed was "OR return" (0.35%) and SSI (0.35%). The observed PP15 rates for "serious" or "any" complications (ACS-SRC definition) were 0.70% (2/285) each. Receiver operating characteristics for ACS-SRC for predicting "serious" or "any" complication were 0.743 (p = 0.118) and 0.654 (p = 0.227), respectively.
Conclusions: Although the ACS-SRC over-predicted risk compared to observed outcomes, it may offer a good starting point for humanitarian surgery risk calculation. Observed outcomes may be limited by loss-to-follow-up bias. Emphasis should be placed on establishing patient follow-up as part of humanitarian surgical mission planning and execution.