Background: Most hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients have undergone a progression from chronic hepatitis, then liver cirrhosis (LC), and finally to carcinoma. The objective of this study was to elucidate risk factors to predict HCC development for cirrhosis patients. Methods: Multiple methylated specific PCR (MSP) was applied to determine methylation status of heparocarcinogenesis-related genes in 396 tissue and plasma specimens and multivariate cox model was used to analyze the relationship between risk variables and HCC development among cirrhosis patients, followed up in a median period of 30 months. Results: Among 105 LC cases, HCC incidence rate at 30 months was 30.48% (32/105), which were statistically associated with patients' age and aberrant methylation of p16, SFRP, and LINE1 (p<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed the overall predictive accuracy reached the highest (90.7%) if the four risk variables were concurrent to predict HCC development. Moreover, along with the growth of age from 0-40, 40-55, to 55-70 years or the increased number of aberrantly-methylated gene from 0-1 to 2-3, the HCC incidence rate of cirrhosis patients rised from 10.00%, 12.28% to 82.14% and 17.44% to 89.47%, separately. Thus, based on combined analysis with diverse age and number of aberrantly-methylated gene, 105 cases were divided into five groups and computed their respective HCC incidecne rate to categorize them into different risk groups. Of note, A significant lifting of HCC incidence rate in the high-risk group (40-55 years coupled with 2-3 aberrantly-methylated genes, 55-70 years coupled with 0-1 aberrantly-methylated gene, 55-70 years coupled with 2-3 aberrantly-methylated genes; n=33) was observed compared with the low-risk group (0-40 years coupled with 0-1 aberrantly-methylated gene, 40-55 years coupled with 0-1 aberrantly-methylated gene; (n=72) (p<0.01). Conclusions: Ultimately, high-risk cirrhosis patients with 55-over years or 2-3 aberrantly-methylated genes should be paid more attention to be regularly screened with HCC development.
Keywords: Biomarkers.; HCC incidence; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver cirrhosis; Methylation; Prediction.