Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966-2015

Hao Guo; Anming Bao; Tie Liu; Guli Jiapaer; Felix Ndayisaba; Liangliang Jiang; Alishir Kurban; Philippe De Maeyer

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966-2015

Sci Total Environ. 2018 May 15:624:1523-1538. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120. Epub 2017 Dec 28.

Authors

Hao Guo¹, Anming Bao², Tie Liu³, Guli Jiapaer⁴, Felix Ndayisaba⁵, Liangliang Jiang⁶, Alishir Kurban⁷, Philippe De Maeyer⁸

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: guohao13@mails.ucas.ac.cn.
² State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: baoam@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
³ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: liutie@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China. Electronic address: glmr@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
⁵ Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Lay Adventists of Kigali (UNILAK), P.O. 6392, Kigali, Rwanda. Electronic address: davfelix@radi.ac.cn.
⁶ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium.
⁷ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: alishir@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
⁸ Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: Philippe.DeMaeyer@UGent.be.

PMID: 29929262
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120

Abstract

In drought-prone regions like Central Asia, drought monitoring studies are paramount to provide valuable information for drought risk mitigation. In this paper, the spatiotemporal drought characteristics in Central Asia are analyzed from 1966 to 2015 using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Drought events, as well as their frequency, duration, severity, intensity and preferred season, are studied by using the Run theory and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month timescales. The Principle Components Analysis (PCA) and the Varimax rotation method, the Sen's slope and the Modified Mann-Kendall method (MMK), as well as the wavelet analysis are adopted to identify the sub-regional drought patterns and to study the drought trend, periodicity and the possible links between drought variation and large-scale climate patterns, respectively. Results show that the drought characteristics in Central Asia vary considerably. The Hexi Corridor region and the southeastern part suffered from more short-term drought occurrences which mostly occurred in summer while the northeastern part experienced fewer droughts with longer duration and higher severity. Central Asia showed an overall wetting trend with a switch to drying trend since 2003. Regionally, the continuous wetting trend is found in north Kazakhstan while a consistent drying in the Aral Sea and Hexi Corridor region is observed in the last half-century. For 2003-2015, a significant drying pattern is detected in most Central Asia, except the northern Kazakhstan. A common significant 16-64-month periodical oscillation can be detected over the six sub-regions. The drought changes in Central Asia are highly associated with ENSO but less related to the Tibetan Plateau pressure. The North Atlantic Oscillation has an influence on drought change in most Central Asia but less for the Hexi Corridor and the drought variation in eastern Central Asia is affected by the strength of the Siberian High.

Keywords: Drought characteristics; Drought periodicity; Drought trend; Run theory; SPEI; Teleconnection.