Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March‒May 2018

Kenji Mizumoto; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Gerardo Chowell

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.24.1800239

Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March‒May 2018

Euro Surveill. 2018 Jun;23(24):1800239. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.24.1800239.

Authors

Kenji Mizumoto^{1

2}, Tetsuro Kobayashi^{1

2}, Gerardo Chowell^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA.
² Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
³ Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.

PMID: 29921344
PMCID: PMC6152199
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.24.1800239

Abstract

A recent outbreak of measles in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan ended with 33 measles cases whose symptoms were masked because of insufficient protection against the disease (modified measles). Using quantitative modelling, we determined the transmission potential of measles by clinical presentation (classic vs modified measles). We found low ascertainment probabilities among modified measles cases, indicating that intensified public health interventions that specifically target this group should be implemented to better contain outbreaks with modified measles cases.

Keywords: Japan; epidemics; measles; modelling; modified measles; outbreak; transmission potential.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Disease Outbreaks* / statistics & numerical data
Humans
Japan / epidemiology
Measles / epidemiology*
Measles / transmission*
Public Health