The Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin of the Kaidu-Konqi River Basin were chosen as the study sites in this paper in order to investigate suitable scales of natural and artificial oases with a specified water resource and water quantity planned by the local government. Combined with remote-sensing images from 2013, water resources in 2013, 2025 and 2035, and weather and socioeconomic data, suitable scales of oases were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The total available water quantities in the Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin without river base flow, and the input of water into Bosten Lake and Tarim River, over high-, normal and low-flow periods, in 2025 and 2035, were 19.04 × 108 m3, 10.52 × 108 m3, 4.95 × 108 m3, 9.95 × 108 m3 and 9.95 × 108 m3, as well as 21.77 × 108 m3, 13.95 × 108 m3, 10.11 × 108 m3, 12.50 × 108 m3, and 9.74 × 108 m3. (2) The water demand of the natural oasis in the Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin was 2.59 × 108 m3, and 4.59 × 108 m3, respectively. (3) The total water consumption of the artificial oasis in 2013, 2025, and 2035 were 10.51 × 108 m3, 10.99 × 108 m3 and 10.74 × 108 m3 in the Yanqi Basin, respectively, and 18.59 × 108 m3, 14.07 × 108 m3 and 13.30 × 108m3 in the Kongqi River Basin, respectively. (4) Under government planning, the optimal area in 2025 and 2035 should be 5,100.06 km2 and 5,096.15 km2 in the Yanqi Basin oases, and 6,008.53 km2 and 4,691.36 km2 in the Konqi River Basin oases, respectively, under the different inflow variations, and 4,972.71 km2 and 4,969.22 km2 in the Yanqi Basin oases, and 5,975.17 km2 and 4,665.67 km2 in the Kongqi River Basin oases, respectively, under the appropriate proportion. (5) The artificial oases in these basins should be greatly decreased in the future due to limited water resources.
Keywords: Available water quantity; Government planning; Inflow variations; Water balance; Water demand of oasis.