Urban expansion simulation and the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, a case study in Atlanta Metropolitan area, USA

Xiao Sun; John C Crittenden; Feng Li; Zhongming Lu; Xiaolin Dou

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.062

Urban expansion simulation and the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, a case study in Atlanta Metropolitan area, USA

Sci Total Environ. 2018 May 1:622-623:974-987. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.062. Epub 2017 Dec 13.

Authors

Xiao Sun¹, John C Crittenden², Feng Li³, Zhongming Lu⁴, Xiaolin Dou⁵

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 828 West Peachtree St. NW, Suite 320, Atlanta, GA 30332-0595, USA. Electronic address: xiaosun_st@rcees.ac.cn.
² Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 828 West Peachtree St. NW, Suite 320, Atlanta, GA 30332-0595, USA. Electronic address: john.crittenden@ce.gatech.edu.
³ State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China. Electronic address: lifeng@rcees.ac.cn.
⁴ School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, PR China. Electronic address: zhongming.lu@bnu.edu.cn.
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China. Electronic address: xldou@rcees.ac.cn.

PMID: 29890614
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.062

Abstract

Urban expansion can lead to land use changes and, hence, threatens the ecosystems. Understanding the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services (ESs) can provide scientific guidance for land use planning and the protection of ESs. We established a framework to assess the spatial distributions of ESs based on land use changes in the Atlanta Metropolitan area (AMA) from 1985 to 2012. A new comprehensive ecosystem service (CES) index was developed to reflect the comprehensive level of ESs. Associated with the influential factors, we simulated the business as usual scenario in 2030. Four alternative scenarios, including more compact growth (MCG), riparian vegetation buffer (RVB), soil conservation (SC), and combined development (CD) scenarios were developed to explore the optimal land use strategies which can enhance the ESs. The results showed that forest and wetland had the greatest decreases, while low and high intensity built-up lands had the greatest increases. The values of CES and most of ESs decreased significantly due to the sprawling expansion of built-up land. The scenario analysis revealed that the CD scenario performs best in CES value, while it performs the worst in food supply. Compared with the RVB and SC scenarios, MCG scenario is a more optimal land use strategy to enhance the ESs without at the expense of food supply. To integrate multiple ESs into land use planning and decision making, corresponding land management policies and ecological engineering measures should be implemented to enhance: (1) the water yield and water purification in urban core counties, (2) the carbon storage, habitat quality, and recreational opportunity in counties around the core area, and (3) the soil conservation and food supply in surrounding suburban counties. The land use strategies and ecological engineering measures in this study can provide references for enhancing the ESs in the AMA and other metropolitan areas.

Keywords: Ecosystem services (ESs); InVEST model; Land use simulation; Markov-logistic-CA model; Scenarios.