Managing the resilience space of the German energy system - A vector analysis

Abstract

The UN Sustainable Development Goals formulated in 2016 confirmed the sustainability concept of the Earth Summit of 1992 and supported UNEP's green economy transition concept. The transformation of the energy system (Energiewende) is the keystone of Germany's sustainability strategy and of the German green economy concept. We use ten updated energy-related indicators of the German sustainability strategy to analyse the German energy system. The development of the sustainable indicators is examined in the monitoring process by a vector analysis performed in two-dimensional Euclidean space (Euclidean plane). The aim of the novel vector analysis is to measure the current status of the Energiewende in Germany and thereby provide decision makers with information about the strains for the specific remaining pathway of the single indicators and of the total system in order to meet the sustainability targets of the Energiewende. Within this vector model, three vectors (the normative sustainable development vector, the real development vector, and the green economy vector) define the resilience space of our analysis. The resilience space encloses a number of vectors representing different pathways with different technological and socio-economic strains to achieve a sustainable development of the green economy. In this space, the decision will be made as to whether the government measures will lead to a resilient energy system or whether a readjustment of indicator targets or political measures is necessary. The vector analysis enables us to analyse both the government's ambitiousness, which is expressed in the sustainability target for the indicators at the start of the sustainability strategy representing the starting preference order of the German government (SPO) and, secondly, the current preference order of German society in order to bridge the remaining distance to reach the specific sustainability goals of the strategy summarized in the current preference order (CPO).

Keywords: Energiewende; German energy system; Resilience; Vector analysis.