The "sickle bend" area is a typical dry farming and excellent livestock development area, with fragile ecological environment. It includes 13 provinces (autonomous regions) in the north and the southwest of China. The climate suitability and the climatic potential productivity of spring maize from 1981 to 2010 in this area were quantitatively assessed. The daily data from 650 meteorological stations and grid data (1 km×1 km) in the "sickle bend" area from 1981 to 2010, and recognized indicators of agricultural meteorology were used in this study. The agro-ecological zoning mo-del (AEZ) which was currently very popular in estimating crop climatic potential productivity internationally was also applied, as well as land use classification information monitoring from satellite remote sensing. Then, based on biological characteristics of spring maize and agricultural climate resources, scientific countermeasures on reasonably adjusting agricultural production structure in subsuitable and unsuitable areas were proposed. The results showed that: 1) the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the northern growing areas showed the "big-medium-smaller-small" distribution pattern from the east to the west from 1981 to 2010. However, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the southern growing areas had no significant distribution law, fluctuating between "smaller" and " medium " in general. 2) It presented the "most suitable-suitable-subsuitable-unsuitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest in the northern maize growing region of the "sickle bend" area on the whole from 1981 to 2010. In contrast, the southern planting area showed the "unsuitable-subsuitable-suitable-most suitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest. The most suitable and suitable planting areas of spring maize were mainly located in the most areas of Northeast China and North China, and the southeastern areas of Northwest China. The subsuitable or unsuitable regions mainly included Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu and Guangxi. 3) The most suitable planting area of spring maize was the largest (47%), followed by subsuitable area (23%), unsuitable area (17%) and suitable area (13%). 4) According to the analysis of climatic conditions, we proposed to mainly decrease the spring maize planting in the subsuitable and unsuitable areas. These subsuitable and unsuitable regions were low climatic potential productivity areas, including the arid windstorm region of Northwest, the cold area of Northeast, agro-pastoral area and the rocky desertification region of Southwest.
“镰刀弯”地区是典型的旱作农业区和畜牧业发展优势区,生态环境脆弱,涉及我国北方及西南13个省(区).本文根据1981—2010年“镰刀弯”地区650个气象台站的逐日资料和精细化格点数据(1 km×1 km),采用公认的农业气象指标以及目前国际上比较流行的估算作物气候生产潜力的农业生态区划(AEZ)模型,结合卫星遥感监测的土地利用分类信息,对1981—2010年期间该区春玉米种植的气候适宜程度和气候生产潜力进行了定量评估,并结合玉米生物特性及农业气候资源特点,提出合理调整次适宜、不适宜区农业生产结构的科学对策.结果表明: 1981—2010年期间,“镰刀弯”北部春玉米种植区气候生产潜力从东向西总体呈现“大-中-较小-小”的分布格局,而南部种植区春玉米气候生产潜力分布无明显规律,总体处于“较小-中”之间;1981—2010年期间,“镰刀弯”北部玉米种植区从东南向西北总体呈现“最适宜-适宜-次适宜-不适宜”的分布格局;而南部种植区从东南向西北总体呈现“不适宜-次适宜-适宜-最适宜”的分布格局.春玉米种植最适宜区分布面积最大(47%),其次为次适宜区(23%)和不适宜区(17%),适宜区最小(13%).其中,玉米次适宜、不适宜种植面积占该地区现有总耕地面积的40%.春玉米最适宜、适宜种植区主要位于东北大部、华北、西北地区东南部,次适宜或不适宜区主要位于内蒙古、新疆北部、甘肃西部和广西等地.根据气候条件分析,建议重点调减西北风沙干旱区、东北冷凉区、北方农牧交错区和西南石漠化区内的气候次适宜区、不适宜区的玉米种植, 并且该区域也属于作物气候生产潜力较低的种植区.
Keywords: "sickle bend" area; climatic potential productivity; climatic suitability; regulation suggestion; spring maize.