Differences in Transmission and Disease Severity Between 2 Successive Waves of Chikungunya

Clin Infect Dis. 2018 Nov 13;67(11):1760-1767. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy356.

Abstract

Background: Chikungunya, an arboviral disease, caused massive epidemics in Central and South America in 2014-2016. In a prospective pediatric cohort study, we examined the introduction of chikungunya in a naive population and investigated transmission and clinical characteristics.

Methods: Children presenting to the study health center with a chikungunya-like illness or undifferentiated fever were tested for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and serological assays. Inapparent CHIKV infections in the intervening year were determined by seroconversion in healthy blood samples collected annually.

Results: A total of 4353 children participated in the cohort study from March 2014 to February 2016 during the 2 epidemic waves of chikungunya. A total of 539 cases of chikungunya were documented, for an incidence rate of 80.2 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.7, 87.2); and a total of 893 CHIKV infections were documented, for an incidence rate of 137.1 infections per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 128.4, 146.4). The seroprevalence of anti-CHIKV antibodies increased linearly with age, with seroprevalence of >45% in 14-year-old children at the end of Epidemic 2. Symptom presentation varied between the epidemics, with Epidemic 2 exhibiting both a higher symptomatic-to-inapparent ratio (1:1.20 in Epidemic 1 vs. 1:0.65 in Epidemic 2) and more severe clinical presentation among cases. The mean reproduction number was also greater in Epidemic 2 than in Epidemic 1.

Conclusions: The intensity of transmission and severity of clinical presentation varied between the 2 epidemics, with higher transmission intensity associated with greater disease severity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Antibodies, Viral / blood*
  • Chikungunya Fever / diagnosis
  • Chikungunya Fever / epidemiology*
  • Chikungunya Fever / transmission*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay
  • Epidemics*
  • Female
  • Fever / epidemiology
  • Fever / virology
  • Genotype
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Nicaragua / epidemiology
  • Phylogeny
  • Prospective Studies
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies
  • Severity of Illness Index

Substances

  • Antibodies, Viral