Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation

Patrick Campbell; Yang Zhang; Fang Yan; Zifeng Lu; David Streets

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation

Environ Pollut. 2018 Jul:238:903-917. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020. Epub 2018 Apr 17.

Authors

Patrick Campbell¹, Yang Zhang², Fang Yan³, Zifeng Lu⁴, David Streets⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA.
² Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA. Electronic address: yzhang9@ncsu.edu.
³ Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA; Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 60439, USA; Currently at Mobile Source Control Division, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, 95814, USA.
⁴ Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA; Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 60439, USA.

PMID: 29677550
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.04.020

Abstract

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH₃), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO_x, VOC, and NH₃, while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO₂ emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations.

Keywords: Climate change; Dynamical downscaling; SPEW-Trend; Technology driver model; Transportation sector emissions; WRF/CMAQ.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants / analysis*
Air Pollution / analysis
Air Pollution / statistics & numerical data*
Carbon Monoxide
Climate Change
Environmental Monitoring*
Forecasting
Nitrogen Oxides / analysis
Particulate Matter / analysis
Seasons
Transportation
United States
Vehicle Emissions / analysis*
Volatile Organic Compounds / analysis
Weather

Substances

Air Pollutants
Nitrogen Oxides
Particulate Matter
Vehicle Emissions
Volatile Organic Compounds
Carbon Monoxide