Objectives: To provide a map of Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification System codes to individual Rx-Risk comorbidities and to validate the Rx-Risk Comorbidity Index.
Design: The 46 comorbidities in the Rx-Risk Index were mapped to dispensing's indicative of each condition using ATC codes. Prescription dispensing claims in 2014 were used to calculate the Rx-Risk. A baseline logistic regression model was fitted using age and gender as covariates. Rx-Risk was added to the base model as an (1) unweighted score, (2) weighted score and as (3) individual comorbidity categories indicating the presence or absence of each condition. The Akaike information criterion and c-statistic were used to compare the models.
Setting: Models were developed in the Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs health claims data, and external validation was undertaken in a 10% sample of the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Data.
Participants: Subjects aged 65 years or older.
Outcome measures: Death within 1 year (eg, 2015).
Results: Compared with the base model (c-statistic 0.738, 95% CI 0.734 to 0.742), including Rx-Risk improved prediction of mortality; unweighted score 0.751, 95% CI 0.747 to 0.754, weighted score 0.786, 95% CI 0.782 to 0.789 and individual comorbidities 0.791, 95% CI 0.788 to 0.795. External validation confirmed the utility of the weighted index (c-statistic=0.833).
Conclusions: The updated Rx-Risk Comorbidity Score was predictive of 1-year mortality and may be useful in practice to adjust for confounding in observational studies using medication claims data.
Keywords: chronic disease burden; claims data; comorbidity; model validation; mortality prediction; weighting.
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