Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the usefulness of artificial neural networks (ANN), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), naïve Bayes classifier (NBC), general discriminant analysis (GDA), and logistic regression (LR) for dystocia detection in Polish Holstein-Friesian Black-and-White heifers and cows and to indicate the most influential predictors of calving difficulty.
Methods: A total of 1,342 and 1,699 calving records including six categorical and four continuous predictors were used. Calving category (difficult vs easy or difficult, moderate and easy) was the dependent variable.
Results: The maximum sensitivity, specificity and accuracy achieved for heifers on the independent test set were 0.855 (for ANN), 0.969 (for NBC), and 0.813 (for GDA), respectively, whereas the values for cows were 0.600 (for ANN), 1.000 and 0.965 (for NBC, GDA, and LR), respectively. With the three categories of calving difficulty, the maximum overall accuracy for heifers and cows was 0.589 (for MARS) and 0.649 (for ANN), respectively. The most influential predictors for heifers were an average calving difficulty score for the dam's sire, calving age and the mean yield of the farm, where the heifer was kept, whereas for cows, these additionally included: calf sex, the difficulty of the preceding calving, and the mean daily milk yield for the preceding lactation.
Conclusion: The potential application of the investigated models in dairy cattle farming requires, however, their further improvement in order to reduce the rate of dystocia misdiagnosis and to increase detection reliability.
Keywords: Dairy Cattle; Dystocia; Prediction; Statistical Analysis.