The pervading paradigm in insect phenology models is that the response to a given temperature does not vary within a life stage. The developmental rate functions that have been developed for general use, or for specific insects, have for the most part been temperature-dependent but not age-dependent, except where age is an ordinal variable designating the larval instar. Age dependence, where age is a continuous variable, is not often reported (or investigated), and is rarely included in phenology models. I provide a short review of the seldom-investigated phenomenon of age dependence in developmental response to temperature, and compare the derivation of the winter moth egg phenology model by Salis et al. to the derivation of another egg phenology model with age-dependent responses to temperature I discuss some probable reasons for the discrepancies (acknowledged by Salis et al. between modelled and observed developmental rates of the winter moth, and discuss the contribution that geographically robust phenology models can make to estimates of species distributions.
Keywords: Jensen’s inequality; age dependence; age-dependent developmental rate; gypsy moth; niche models; phenology; winter moth.