Potentially achievable biomass yields are a decisive performance indicator for the economic viability of mass cultivation of microalgae. In this study, a computer model has been developed and applied to estimate the productivity of microalgae for large-scale outdoor cultivation in vertical flat panel photobioreactors. Algae growth is determined based on simulations of the reactor temperature and light distribution. Site-specific weather and irradiation data are used for annual yield estimations in six climate zones. Shading and reflections between opposing panels and between panels and the ground are dynamically computed based on the reactor geometry and the position of the sun. The results indicate that thin panels (≤0.05 m) are best suited for the assumed cell density of 2 g L-1 and that reactor panels should face in north-south direction. Panel spacings of 0.4-0.75 m at a panel height of 1 m appear most suitable for commercial applications. Under these preconditions, yields of around 10 kg m-2 a-1 are possible for most locations in the U.S. Only in hot climates significantly lower yields have to be expected, as extreme reactor temperatures limit overall productivity.