Transmission dynamics of influenza in two major cities of Uganda

Abstract

In this paper, we report the epidemic characteristics of the three co-circulating influenza viruses (i.e., A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) in two tropical African cities-Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda-over an eight-year period (2008-2015). Using wavelet methods, we show that influenza epidemics recurred annually during the study period. In most months, two or more influenza viruses co-circulated at the same time. However, the epidemic timing differed by influenza (sub)type. Influenza A/H3N2 caused epidemics approximately every 2 years in both cities and tended to alternate with A/H1N1 or B. Influenza A/H1N1 and B produced smaller but more frequent epidemics and biennial epidemics of these two viruses tended to be synchronous. In addition, epidemics of A/H3N2 were more synchronized in the two cities (located ca.37 km apart) than that of A/H1N1 or influenza B.

Keywords: (sub)type specific; Epidemic frequency; Influenza; Tropical regions; Uganda.